! This post hasn't been updated in over a year. A lot can change in a year including my opinion and the amount of naughty words I use. There's a good chance that there's something in what's written below that someone will find objectionable. That's fine, if I tried to please everybody all of the time then I'd be a Lib Dem (remember them?) and I'm certainly not one of those. The point is, I'm not the kind of person to try and alter history in case I said something in the past that someone can use against me in the future but just remember that the person I was then isn't the person I am now nor the person I'll be in a year's time.
The Zimbabwean Electoral Commission has announced that Mugabe’s Zanu PF has lost its majority in the Zimbabwean Parliament.
200 out of 207 seats have been declared with 94 going to Zanu PF, 1 to an independent and 105 to opposition parties.
This doesn’t answer the important question – whether Morgan Tsvangirai has won more than 50% of the presidential vote to avoid a run-off and (more importantly) whether Mugabe will give up power.
My money is on Mugabe taking emergency powers, purging parliament and declaring the election void. Either that or having Tsvangirai charged with electoral fraud and getting one of his pet judges to rule that it would be unconstitutional for Tsvangirai to be president with a conviction for electoral fraud.
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I won’t claim to be shocked by these results. Zimbabwe has been subject to draconian sanctions though officially these only target the leadership; banning the country from the global banking system is slightly more all-targeting and draconian than that. The people there are exhausted by this war against them and are giving up.
This opposition leader’s background and policies recall Frederick Chiluba, whose rule in Zambia helped bring the world the miracle drug “jenkem” and who infamously took a bribe from a “vulture fund” in order that penniless Zambians be squeezed for some more non-existent money. It’s no surprise that Zambians are the ones warning Zimbabweans about the horrors to come. No matter; under torture people will do just about anything.
I can’t help but think that Mugabe’s turning point came when he sent his army to fight the almost sacred Rwandese Patriotic Front, a unit of the Ugandan army that invaded Rwanda and later took over that country, and after that, took over the Congo. When the leaders it installed in power turned against it, the RPF invaded again and Mugabe joined the war to assist the Congolese leadership. As soon as that happened it was war against Mugabe and now the people are giving up; the lesson here is that the Western powers have sacred cows like the RPF and you cross them at your peril.
I hope you’re wrong Wonko. It’s good news that the parliamentary elections haven’t been rigged – I hope there will be a run-off election that is conducted in a peaceful manner.
Rather than just discontent with Zaun-PF, Tsangirai’s good performance in the presidential election is perhaps explained by Simba Makoni’s candidacy, which helped split some of the Zanu-PF vote.
Expect South Africa to take a tougher line with Zimbabwe – what with the probable next S. African president, Jacob Zuma, a critic of Mugabe.
And Mr R – I think the issue of land reform would be the most problematic for the imperial powers, don’t you?
First came the Congo war. Then the imperialists turned against him. Then Mugabe disavowed the IMF and tried to reinforce his street credibility with the land reform. That tiny minority with most of the land, on cue with the imperialists, turned against him and started financing the Zimbabwean Chiluba.
It could be that Mugabe was seen by these people as spent after 10 years of IMF disaster but I think that the intervention in the Congo alarmed the Western powers, suggesting Mugabe to be out of control. You do not touch the sacred Tutsi and get away with it. You do not. It’s like what happens to those who oppose Israel in any way. They become Evil Incarnate.